Scouting Report
Colin Fraser holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Horak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Horak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Horak 43.9% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horak 60.7%
Defensive zone
Horak 63.3%
Neutral zone
Horak 63.2%
Result
Roman Horak favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Fraser
Horak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fraser
Horak
Last 5: Fraser 1-4 Horak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horak
0
3
Fraser
Horak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Horak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Horak
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
41.8% (594)
+6.2%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
51.4% (37)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
57.9% (19)
-22.1%
On penalty kill, Horak has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horak shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Horak is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (417).
Home / Away
Fraser
Horak
Home
48.6% (661)
43.7% (325)
Away
44.0% (602)
42.2% (327)
By Period
Fraser
Horak
P1
46.7%
42.4%
P2
46.4%
44.2%
P3
46.2%
42.6%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Roman Horak |