Scouting Report
Colin Fraser holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Horak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.9% vs Horak 43.1% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horak 65.3%
Defensive zone
Horak 70.8%
Neutral zone
Horak 65.4%
Result
Roman Horak favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Fraser
Horak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fraser
Horak
Last 5: Fraser 1-4 Horak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horak
0
3
Fraser
Horak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Horak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Horak
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (332)
40.1% (399)
+8.7%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
53.8% (26)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
50.0% (14)
-11.5%
On power play, Horak has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horak shoots left. Fraser is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Fraser shoots left. Horak is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Fraser
Horak
Home
49.7% (189)
40.5% (227)
Away
44.8% (181)
42.5% (214)
By Period
Fraser
Horak
P1
44.6%
42.3%
P2
48.1%
40.5%
P3
49.1%
41.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.3%
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 18:21 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Jan 14, 2012 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Roman Horak |