Scouting Report
Steve Ott holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Ott on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Ott shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Ott 55.4% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Ott leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fraser 77.5%
Defensive zone
Fraser 80.9%
Neutral zone
Fraser 77.9%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Fraser
Ott
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Fraser
Ott
Last 10: Fraser 3-7 Ott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ott
0
2
Fraser
Ott
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Fraser
Ott
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ott
1
3
Fraser
Ott
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Ott
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
57.2% (2,802)
-9.2%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
55.4% (567)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
49.9% (853)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Ott has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ott shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Ott is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,552).
Home / Away
Fraser
Ott
Home
48.6% (661)
56.8% (2,130)
Away
44.0% (602)
54.2% (2,103)
By Period
Fraser
Ott
P1
46.7%
56.7%
P2
46.4%
53.9%
P3
46.2%
55.7%
OT
33.3%
60.8%
Final 5 min
46.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Ott
60.0%▲
53.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2013 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 13:22 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 08:21 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Jan 12, 2012 | 3 | 10:38 | Neutral | Steve Ott |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 1 | 17:15 | Defensive | Steve Ott |
| Jan 26, 2011 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Steve Ott |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 1 | 12:51 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |