Scouting Report
Brandon Sutter holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sutter on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sutter wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 51.9% vs McDavid 42.5% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sutter 72.8%
Defensive zone
Sutter 83.6%
Neutral zone
Sutter 80.9%
Result
Brandon Sutter favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Sutter
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sutter
McDavid
Last 8: Sutter 5-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
2
1
Sutter
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
1
0
Sutter
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Sutter
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (187)
40.7% (578)
+13.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
56.3% (16)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (51)
50.0% (10)
-1.0%
On even strength, Sutter has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Sutter is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Sutter shoots right. McDavid is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Sutter
McDavid
Home
57.3% (164)
42.7% (323)
Away
45.6% (114)
39.5% (281)
By Period
Sutter
McDavid
P1
49.4%
42.3%
P2
52.3%
37.3%
P3
54.3%
43.4%
OT
71.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
52.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2015 | OT | 00:30 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 1 | 18:46 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 1 | 16:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 1 | 06:49 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |