Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Backes 50.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 69.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
McDavid
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
McDavid
Backes
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
4
McDavid
Backes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
4
McDavid
Backes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
51.1% (5,772)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
50.8% (1,082)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
47.4% (930)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Home / Away
McDavid
Backes
Home
49.3% (4,570)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
McDavid
Backes
P1
46.5%
50.1%
P2
48.7%
51.5%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
40.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.1%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 1 | 15:36 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 09:29 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 01:21 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 12:59 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 08:52 | Defensive | David Backes |