Scouting Report
Frans Nielsen holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nielsen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Nielsen 53.5% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 67.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
McDavid
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McDavid
Nielsen
Last 5: McDavid 1-4 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
0
2
McDavid
Nielsen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
0
1
McDavid
Nielsen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Nielsen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
54.2% (906)
-10.9%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
63.2% (152)
-23.2%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
42.3% (156)
-0.4%
On power play, Nielsen has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. McDavid is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
McDavid shoots left. Nielsen is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Home / Away
McDavid
Nielsen
Home
48.7% (413)
55.3% (608)
Away
37.4% (393)
52.3% (606)
By Period
McDavid
Nielsen
P1
38.8%
54.1%
P2
46.8%
52.6%
P3
44.2%
54.0%
OT
45.5%
65.4%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
43.2%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2017 | 3 | 10:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 2 | 04:28 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |