Scouting Report
Jori Lehtera holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lehtera on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Lehtera shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Lehtera 50.0% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Lehtera leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 65.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
McDavid
Lehtera
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
McDavid
Lehtera
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Lehtera
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lehtera
1
2
McDavid
Lehtera
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Lehtera
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lehtera
1
5
McDavid
Lehtera
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lehtera
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
48.9% (843)
-8.2%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
64.6% (96)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
36.7% (30)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lehtera shoots left. McDavid is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (363).
McDavid shoots left. Lehtera is 50.2% vs left-shot opponents (612).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lehtera
Home
42.7% (323)
51.7% (520)
Away
39.5% (281)
48.1% (449)
By Period
McDavid
Lehtera
P1
42.3%
52.8%
P2
37.3%
54.0%
P3
43.4%
43.0%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Lehtera
42.0%▼
56.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 18:09 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 1 | 11:51 | Defensive | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 1 | 02:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 06:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Jori Lehtera |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 03:33 | Offensive | Jori Lehtera |