Scouting Report
Lucas Wallmark holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Wallmark on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Wallmark shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Wallmark 50.9% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
McDavid
Wallmark
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
McDavid
Wallmark
Last 7: McDavid 1-6 Wallmark
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Wallmark
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wallmark
0
2
McDavid
Wallmark
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wallmark
0
3
McDavid
Wallmark
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Wallmark
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
51.8% (956)
-4.9%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
44.1% (59)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
47.4% (114)
-3.0%
On even strength, Wallmark has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wallmark shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Wallmark is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (739).
Home / Away
McDavid
Wallmark
Home
47.9% (478)
52.5% (579)
Away
45.2% (440)
49.3% (550)
By Period
McDavid
Wallmark
P1
45.9%
54.4%
P2
47.7%
48.8%
P3
46.6%
50.1%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Wallmark
44.0%▬
44.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2019 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 00:14 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 04:16 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Lucas Wallmark |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 00:28 | Neutral | Lucas Wallmark |