Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 33 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Kesler 55.9% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 54-39 in 93 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 84.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 88.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
McDavid
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
54
(93 meetings)
39
54
McDavid
Kesler
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
8
9
McDavid
Kesler
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
11
22
McDavid
Kesler
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
20
23
McDavid
Kesler
43 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
56.4% (8,095)
-8.7%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
60.7% (1,437)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
50.5% (1,908)
-7.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kesler
Home
49.3% (4,570)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
McDavid
Kesler
P1
46.5%
56.5%
P2
48.7%
55.9%
P3
48.3%
56.1%
OT
40.9%
46.0%
Final 5 min
50.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 05:51 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 25, 2018 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 10:53 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 3 | 00:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 25, 2018 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |