Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Kesler 55.2% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 91.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 84.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 87.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 86.1%
86.1%
13.9%
McDavid
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
McDavid
Kesler
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
4
McDavid
Kesler
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
5
McDavid
Kesler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
55.7% (741)
-8.8%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
67.0% (100)
-24.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
50.0% (204)
-5.6%
On power play, Kesler has a +24.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. McDavid is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (330).
McDavid shoots left. Kesler is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (731).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kesler
Home
47.9% (478)
52.5% (522)
Away
45.2% (440)
58.9% (523)
By Period
McDavid
Kesler
P1
45.9%
56.7%
P2
47.7%
56.8%
P3
46.6%
54.1%
OT
33.3%
16.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 05:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |