Scouting Report
Colin Fraser holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Fraser wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Emmerton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.8% vs Emmerton 46.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fraser 50.2%
Defensive zone
Emmerton 58.3%
Neutral zone
Fraser 53.8%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Fraser
Emmerton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Fraser
Emmerton
Last 8: Fraser 4-4 Emmerton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Emmerton
0
2
Fraser
Emmerton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Emmerton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
2
Fraser
Emmerton
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Emmerton
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (160)
44.8% (368)
+0.8%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
50.0% (4)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
48.8% (41)
+1.2%
On power play, Fraser has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Emmerton shoots left. Fraser is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (123).
Fraser shoots left. Emmerton is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Fraser
Emmerton
Home
49.5% (95)
44.6% (213)
Away
42.5% (73)
46.0% (200)
By Period
Fraser
Emmerton
P1
42.6%
46.3%
P2
48.1%
43.8%
P3
49.1%
45.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Emmerton
56.0%▲
50.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2013 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Cory Emmerton |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Cory Emmerton |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 12:23 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 2 | 05:28 | Neutral | Cory Emmerton |
| Apr 24, 2013 | 1 | 02:05 | Offensive | Cory Emmerton |
| Feb 27, 2013 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |