Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Emmerton 48.7% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Emmerton 72.1%
Defensive zone
Emmerton 58.2%
Neutral zone
Emmerton 64.3%
Result
Cory Emmerton favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Emmerton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Emmerton
O'Reilly
Last 5: Emmerton 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Emmerton
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Emmerton
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Emmerton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (299)
52.5% (1,177)
-4.3%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
54.6% (130)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
52.8% (108)
+4.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Emmerton is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (222).
Emmerton shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Emmerton
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (183)
54.9% (669)
Away
46.2% (130)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Emmerton
O'Reilly
P1
45.5%
52.4%
P2
50.0%
56.1%
P3
49.4%
49.8%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Emmerton
56.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2011 | 3 | 19:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2011 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 2 | 17:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 2 | 09:20 | Neutral | Cory Emmerton |