Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Adams on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Adams wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Adams 44.5% vs Roy 47.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 91.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 67.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 72.3%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Adams
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Adams
Roy
Last 6: Adams 6-0 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Adams
1
0
Adams
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Adams
4
0
Adams
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Adams
1
0
Adams
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Adams
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (632)
46.4% (3,031)
+0.9%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
53.6% (560)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (386)
46.8% (267)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Adams is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (704).
Adams shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Home / Away
Adams
Roy
Home
42.0% (488)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
45.8% (546)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Adams
Roy
P1
46.5%
47.6%
P2
40.5%
46.2%
P3
45.5%
48.5%
OT
50.0%
43.1%
Final 5 min
42.2%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Adams
42.0%▼
45.0%
44.0%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2010 | 1 | 16:53 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Dec 11, 2010 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Craig Adams |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 2 | 10:24 | Defensive | Craig Adams |