Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Adams wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Adams 46.4% vs Spezza 53.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Adams 65.4%
Defensive zone
Adams 91.8%
Neutral zone
Adams 77.7%
Result
Craig Adams favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Adams
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Adams
Spezza
Last 9: Adams 1-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
4
Adams
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
3
Adams
Spezza
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Adams
Spezza
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Adams
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (170)
53.8% (1,283)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (118)
49.4% (89)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Adams is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Adams shoots right. Spezza is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Adams
Spezza
Home
45.8% (131)
56.4% (853)
Away
44.7% (161)
50.5% (847)
By Period
Adams
Spezza
P1
46.4%
53.4%
P2
48.2%
54.2%
P3
42.1%
53.4%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Adams
42.0%▼
45.0%
45.2%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 2 | 05:17 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 3 | 13:17 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 16, 2011 | 2 | 16:09 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 3 | 18:17 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |