Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Adams on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Adams wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Adams 44.5% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Adams leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaustad 50.6%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.8%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 78.1%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 75.6%
24.4%
75.6%
Adams
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Adams
Gaustad
Last 10: Adams 5-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
2
Adams
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Adams
3
1
Adams
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Adams
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Adams
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (632)
58.2% (4,334)
-10.9%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
65.4% (188)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (386)
54.8% (1,290)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Adams is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (704).
Adams shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Adams
Gaustad
Home
42.0% (488)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
45.8% (546)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Adams
Gaustad
P1
46.5%
58.2%
P2
40.5%
56.4%
P3
45.5%
58.3%
OT
50.0%
66.0%
Final 5 min
42.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Adams
42.0%▼
45.0%
44.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 04:39 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Craig Adams |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 10:10 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Craig Adams |
| Mar 8, 2011 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 1 | 18:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 24, 2010 | 3 | 02:26 | Defensive | Craig Adams |