Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Adams wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Adams 44.5% vs Connolly 47.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 54.0%
Defensive zone
Adams 80.9%
Neutral zone
Adams 65.8%
Result
Craig Adams favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Adams
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Adams
Connolly
Last 5: Adams 1-4 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Adams
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Adams
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Adams
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Adams
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (632)
47.4% (1,307)
-0.1%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
50.2% (251)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (386)
41.9% (186)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Adams is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Adams shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Adams
Connolly
Home
42.0% (488)
48.5% (870)
Away
45.8% (546)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Adams
Connolly
P1
46.5%
47.4%
P2
40.5%
47.7%
P3
45.5%
47.0%
OT
50.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
42.2%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Adams
42.0%▼
45.0%
44.0%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2012 | 3 | 05:26 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |