Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Conroy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Conroy wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Conroy 52.2% vs Thornton 54.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 84.7%
Defensive zone
Conroy 50.6%
Neutral zone
Thornton 60.7%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Conroy
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Conroy
Thornton
Last 6: Conroy 4-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Conroy
Thornton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Conroy
1
0
Conroy
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Conroy
2
1
Conroy
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Conroy
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (124)
52.8% (922)
+2.0%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
56.1% (196)
+43.9%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (62)
62.0% (100)
-13.6%
On power play, Conroy has a +43.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Conroy is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (156).
Conroy shoots right. Thornton is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (327).
Home / Away
Conroy
Thornton
Home
58.7% (92)
54.9% (597)
Away
48.5% (97)
54.0% (643)
By Period
Conroy
Thornton
P1
54.9%
53.0%
P2
54.8%
51.2%
P3
49.1%
57.8%
OT
100.0%
72.7%
Final 5 min
56.8%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Conroy
44.0%▼
53.4%
53.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 03:12 | Neutral | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Craig Conroy |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 00:58 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |