Scouting Report
Patrik Berglund holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Berglund on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Smith wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Berglund 48.7% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Berglund leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 96.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 62.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 85.2%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Smith
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
Smith
Berglund
Last 10: Smith 2-8 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Smith
Berglund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Berglund
1
9
Smith
Berglund
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Smith
Berglund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
49.0% (4,697)
-8.2%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
51.3% (548)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
43.2% (461)
+1.2%
On power play, Berglund has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Smith is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (920).
Smith shoots right. Berglund is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,046).
Home / Away
Smith
Berglund
Home
42.3% (556)
50.9% (2,829)
Away
39.1% (675)
46.6% (2,904)
By Period
Smith
Berglund
P1
39.0%
49.3%
P2
42.1%
48.2%
P3
40.2%
49.0%
OT
75.0%
39.7%
Final 5 min
40.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 1 | 07:04 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 19, 2016 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 1 | 01:10 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 07:51 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Dec 30, 2011 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | Craig Smith |
| Dec 30, 2011 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Patrik Berglund |