Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Smith wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 41.2% vs Kesler 55.9% (-15.5%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 81.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 94.2%
Neutral zone
Kesler 60.2%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 60.0%
40.0%
60.0%
Smith
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Smith
Kesler
Last 10: Smith 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
5
0
Smith
Kesler
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
5
Smith
Kesler
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Smith
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (1,023)
56.4% (8,095)
-15.6%
Power Play
39.4% (198)
60.7% (1,437)
-21.3%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
50.5% (1,908)
-6.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Smith is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Smith shoots right. Kesler is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,497).
Home / Away
Smith
Kesler
Home
42.3% (556)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
39.1% (675)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Smith
Kesler
P1
39.0%
56.5%
P2
42.1%
55.9%
P3
40.2%
56.1%
OT
75.0%
46.0%
Final 5 min
40.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
40.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2018 | 1 | 00:43 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 12, 2018 | 1 | 08:22 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 12, 2016 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 1 | 07:06 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 22, 2013 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 20, 2011 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Craig Smith |