Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +25.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Smith wins 40.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 38.2% vs Kesler 58.0% (-25.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 91.3%
Defensive zone
Kesler 76.3%
Neutral zone
Smith 66.3%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Smith
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Smith
Kesler
Last 6: Smith 2-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
0
Smith
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Smith
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
33.9% (177)
58.6% (1,138)
-24.7%
Power Play
30.8% (52)
64.5% (186)
-33.7%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
55.0% (351)
-55.0%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +55.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Smith is 40.8% vs right-shot opponents (49).
Smith shoots right. Kesler is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Smith
Kesler
Home
37.0% (119)
61.0% (859)
Away
28.8% (111)
55.9% (816)
By Period
Smith
Kesler
P1
37.5%
59.1%
P2
32.5%
56.5%
P3
27.3%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
29.5%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
33.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2015 | 2 | 12:18 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 17, 2015 | 1 | 07:06 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 1 | 09:43 | Offensive | Craig Smith |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |