Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 45.2% vs Connolly 48.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 72.0%
Defensive zone
Smith 63.8%
Neutral zone
Smith 67.9%
Result
Craig Smith favored at 67.9%
67.9%
32.1%
Smith
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Smith
Connolly
Last 7: Smith 1-6 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Smith
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Smith
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Smith
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (332)
47.8% (605)
-2.9%
Power Play
38.9% (54)
51.2% (86)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
55.1% (89)
-5.1%
On power play, Connolly has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Smith is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Smith shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Smith
Connolly
Home
46.1% (167)
51.1% (358)
Away
42.5% (226)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Smith
Connolly
P1
42.1%
48.7%
P2
43.4%
48.1%
P3
47.0%
50.4%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.6%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
30.0%▼
44.0%
44.0%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Craig Smith |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 13:23 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 10:16 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |