Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Crosby 55.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 77.4%
Defensive zone
Lazar 94.4%
Neutral zone
Lazar 68.1%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Lazar
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Lazar
Crosby
Last 6: Lazar 5-1 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Lazar
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
0
Lazar
Crosby
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Crosby
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
63.8% (174)
53.5% (961)
+10.3%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
64.1% (237)
-64.1%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
64.3% (14)
-8.0%
On power play, Crosby has a +64.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Lazar is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (198).
Lazar shoots right. Crosby is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (356).
Home / Away
Lazar
Crosby
Home
63.3% (128)
56.4% (622)
Away
59.3% (118)
54.9% (590)
By Period
Lazar
Crosby
P1
64.6%
56.0%
P2
60.5%
52.6%
P3
59.0%
58.3%
Final 5 min
68.4%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
61.4%
Crosby
64.0%▲
53.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |