Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Winnik wins 40.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Winnik 44.3% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Winnik 80.4%
Defensive zone
Winnik 79.6%
Neutral zone
Winnik 84.0%
Result
Daniel Winnik favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Winnik
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Winnik
Pavelski
Last 10: Winnik 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
4
Winnik
Pavelski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Winnik
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Winnik
1
0
Winnik
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Winnik
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (588)
53.6% (8,791)
-7.7%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
58.2% (2,122)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (248)
50.9% (1,138)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Winnik is 40.1% vs right-shot opponents (314).
Winnik shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Winnik
Pavelski
Home
48.5% (406)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
39.2% (446)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Winnik
Pavelski
P1
48.8%
53.5%
P2
40.6%
55.2%
P3
42.8%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Winnik
38.0%▼
44.5%
43.7%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2017 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Daniel Winnik |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Daniel Winnik |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 08:23 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 17, 2010 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Daniel Winnik |