Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Helm 51.7% vs Smithson 55.3% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Helm 78.9%
Defensive zone
Helm 63.8%
Neutral zone
Helm 68.5%
Result
Darren Helm favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Helm
Smithson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Helm
Smithson
Last 7: Helm 2-5 Smithson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
0
2
Helm
Smithson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
3
Helm
Smithson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Helm
Smithson
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (607)
57.9% (518)
-6.5%
Power Play
42.3% (26)
40.0% (10)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (136)
50.0% (108)
+5.1%
On even strength, Smithson has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smithson shoots right. Helm is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Helm shoots left. Smithson is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Helm
Smithson
Home
52.8% (371)
57.8% (306)
Away
51.0% (406)
54.6% (339)
By Period
Helm
Smithson
P1
50.4%
51.8%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
50.6%
62.0%
OT
33.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Helm
34.0%▼
44.5%
51.9%
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2012 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 19:46 | Neutral | Darren Helm |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Nov 26, 2011 | 2 | 01:31 | Neutral | Darren Helm |