Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cogliano on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cogliano wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 42.3% vs Backes 44.9% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Cogliano leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 74.0%
Defensive zone
Cogliano 51.4%
Neutral zone
Backes 64.1%
Result
David Backes favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Cogliano
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Cogliano
Backes
Last 10: Cogliano 6-4 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cogliano
Backes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
4
0
Cogliano
Backes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
3
Cogliano
Backes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
41.6% (810)
45.3% (819)
-3.7%
Power Play
43.9% (66)
42.1% (190)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
40.9% (215)
40.5% (111)
+0.4%
On even strength, Backes has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Cogliano is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Cogliano shoots left. Backes is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (907).
Home / Away
Cogliano
Backes
Home
43.7% (572)
42.9% (581)
Away
39.4% (536)
46.1% (557)
By Period
Cogliano
Backes
P1
39.2%
40.1%
P2
37.4%
47.3%
P3
48.2%
45.1%
OT
38.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
39.4%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
41.6%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 03:52 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 00:11 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |