Scouting Report
Cal O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.1% vs Backes 44.9% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.2%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
O'Reilly
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
O'Reilly
Backes
Last 10: O'Reilly 7-3 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Backes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Backes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
0
2
O'Reilly
Backes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (403)
45.3% (819)
+0.9%
Power Play
48.1% (79)
42.1% (190)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
40.5% (111)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (156).
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (907).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Backes
Home
48.1% (243)
42.9% (581)
Away
44.9% (254)
46.1% (557)
By Period
O'Reilly
Backes
P1
43.2%
40.1%
P2
45.6%
47.3%
P3
50.9%
45.1%
OT
42.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
46.5%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 2 | 04:16 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 26, 2010 | 2 | 01:29 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 3 | 05:54 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Nov 11, 2010 | 2 | 04:54 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 3 | 05:13 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 17:10 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |