Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.6% vs 44.5%). Look for Fraser on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Backes 44.9% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 74.8%
Defensive zone
Fraser 67.0%
Neutral zone
Backes 52.3%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Fraser
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Fraser
Backes
Last 8: Fraser 5-3 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Backes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
2
Fraser
Backes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Backes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
45.3% (819)
+2.3%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
42.1% (190)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
40.5% (111)
-5.6%
On power play, Fraser has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Fraser is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (178).
Fraser shoots left. Backes is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (907).
Home / Away
Fraser
Backes
Home
47.1% (293)
42.9% (581)
Away
41.7% (259)
46.1% (557)
By Period
Fraser
Backes
P1
46.3%
40.1%
P2
43.1%
47.3%
P3
44.7%
45.1%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 18:28 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | David Backes |