Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 45.0% vs Backes 51.9% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 65.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 85.0%
Neutral zone
Backes 67.4%
Result
David Backes favored at 77.1%
22.9%
77.1%
Lazar
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lazar
Backes
Last 5: Lazar 4-1 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Backes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Backes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (341)
52.1% (893)
-7.8%
Power Play
46.2% (26)
54.4% (147)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (17)
49.3% (152)
-19.9%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Lazar is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (122).
Lazar shoots right. Backes is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Lazar
Backes
Home
45.0% (202)
53.1% (573)
Away
42.3% (182)
51.1% (619)
By Period
Lazar
Backes
P1
45.5%
51.8%
P2
43.0%
52.3%
P3
42.1%
52.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
43.8%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2016 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 11:11 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 07:52 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 4, 2016 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |