Scouting Report
Derek Roy holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 48.7% vs Roy 50.5% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 61.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 61.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.0%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Backes
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Backes
Roy
Last 5: Backes 4-1 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (967)
50.3% (1,010)
-1.2%
Power Play
48.1% (189)
53.3% (169)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (168)
51.1% (133)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Backes is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Backes shoots right. Roy is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
Backes
Roy
Home
48.1% (690)
52.4% (683)
Away
49.2% (663)
48.6% (646)
By Period
Backes
Roy
P1
49.0%
48.3%
P2
50.2%
49.5%
P3
47.5%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
46.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Jan 21, 2012 | 1 | 07:42 | Defensive | David Backes |