Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (84% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Nielsen 48.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 31-21 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 66.6%
Defensive zone
Backes 56.7%
Neutral zone
Backes 64.2%
Result
David Backes favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Backes
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
21
(52 meetings)
31
21
Backes
Nielsen
Last 10: Backes 6-4 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
9
8
Backes
Nielsen
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nielsen
6
10
Backes
Nielsen
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
16
3
Backes
Nielsen
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
49.3% (7,608)
+1.8%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
54.7% (594)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
41.7% (1,420)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. Nielsen is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,660).
Home / Away
Backes
Nielsen
Home
50.6% (3,936)
49.9% (4,766)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
47.1% (4,890)
By Period
Backes
Nielsen
P1
50.1%
49.7%
P2
51.5%
47.6%
P3
50.8%
48.2%
OT
42.9%
46.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 17:00 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 16:54 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 11:39 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 11:27 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 07:10 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 07:06 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 04:54 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 6, 2018 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 6, 2018 | 1 | 00:52 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 8, 2017 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 14:57 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 2 | 04:21 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 18:50 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |