Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nielsen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Nielsen 48.3% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 89.1%
Defensive zone
Backes 82.2%
Neutral zone
Backes 93.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 90.5%
90.5%
9.5%
Backes
Nielsen
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Backes
Nielsen
Last 8: Backes 7-1 Nielsen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
3
0
Backes
Nielsen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Nielsen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
3
1
Backes
Nielsen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Nielsen
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
49.5% (841)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
54.1% (37)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
40.7% (172)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nielsen shoots left. Backes is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Backes shoots right. Nielsen is 42.8% vs right-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Backes
Nielsen
Home
55.3% (524)
51.2% (510)
Away
54.0% (606)
45.4% (540)
By Period
Backes
Nielsen
P1
53.2%
48.6%
P2
54.2%
47.4%
P3
57.1%
48.9%
OT
44.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
60.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 18:56 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 13:05 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |