Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Vilardi shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.4% vs Vilardi 46.5% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 67.9%
Defensive zone
Backes 89.7%
Neutral zone
Backes 78.9%
Result
David Backes favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Backes
Vilardi
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Backes
Vilardi
Last 7: Backes 6-1 Vilardi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Vilardi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Vilardi
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Vilardi
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Vilardi
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (123)
45.2% (564)
+10.1%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
53.3% (45)
-28.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (33)
48.0% (25)
-11.6%
On power play, Vilardi has a +28.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Vilardi shoots right. Backes is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (45).
Backes shoots right. Vilardi is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
Backes
Vilardi
Home
46.6% (103)
47.3% (330)
Away
57.9% (57)
44.4% (304)
By Period
Backes
Vilardi
P1
52.1%
49.0%
P2
52.0%
43.2%
P3
48.4%
45.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.6%
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 02:33 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 02:30 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 00:03 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 2, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |