Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Backes wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 48.7% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 77.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 77.6%
Neutral zone
Backes 77.8%
Result
David Backes favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Backes
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Backes
Pavelski
Last 7: Backes 1-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Backes
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
3
Backes
Pavelski
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Backes
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (967)
57.8% (569)
-8.7%
Power Play
48.1% (189)
60.2% (161)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (168)
59.5% (121)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Backes is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Backes shoots right. Pavelski is 66.1% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Backes
Pavelski
Home
48.1% (690)
61.0% (403)
Away
49.2% (663)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Backes
Pavelski
P1
49.0%
62.9%
P2
50.2%
56.6%
P3
47.5%
57.1%
OT
33.3%
57.9%
Final 5 min
46.7%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2012 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 1 | 14:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 12, 2012 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 1 | 02:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |