Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.1%). Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 51.9% vs Larsson 51.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 69.0%
Defensive zone
Backes 54.2%
Neutral zone
Backes 55.1%
Result
David Backes favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Backes
Larsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Backes
Larsson
Last 6: Backes 4-2 Larsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Larsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
3
2
Backes
Larsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Larsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (893)
51.3% (696)
+0.8%
Power Play
54.4% (147)
56.3% (32)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (152)
41.9% (31)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larsson shoots left. Backes is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (800).
Backes shoots right. Larsson is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Backes
Larsson
Home
53.1% (573)
51.1% (356)
Away
51.1% (619)
51.1% (403)
By Period
Backes
Larsson
P1
51.8%
54.6%
P2
52.3%
51.9%
P3
52.6%
46.7%
OT
33.3%
54.5%
Final 5 min
53.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.0%
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 06:12 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 06:02 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | David Backes |