Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +21.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Backes wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Korpikoski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Korpikoski 45.9% (+21.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 64.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 82.8%
Neutral zone
Backes 76.1%
Result
David Backes favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Backes
Korpikoski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backes
Korpikoski
Last 5: Backes 3-2 Korpikoski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Korpikoski
0
1
Backes
Korpikoski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
3
1
Backes
Korpikoski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Korpikoski
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
36.0% (25)
+18.5%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
0.0% (1)
+58.9%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
28.6% (7)
+22.9%
On power play, Backes has a +58.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Korpikoski shoots left. Backes is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Backes shoots right. Korpikoski is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (16).
Home / Away
Backes
Korpikoski
Home
55.3% (524)
35.0% (20)
Away
54.0% (606)
30.8% (13)
By Period
Backes
Korpikoski
P1
53.2%
35.7%
P2
54.2%
45.5%
P3
57.1%
12.5%
Final 5 min
60.2%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Korpikoski
40.0%▲
32.5%
33.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 17:05 | Defensive | Lauri Korpikoski |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 07:57 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 1 | 01:59 | Neutral | Lauri Korpikoski |