Scouting Report
Matthew Peca holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Peca on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Backes wins 37.3% vs left-shot opponents — Peca shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 45.0% vs Peca 52.0% (-16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 59.0%
Defensive zone
Peca 57.7%
Neutral zone
Peca 54.2%
Result
Matthew Peca favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Backes
Peca
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Backes
Peca
Last 6: Backes 3-3 Peca
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Peca
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Peca
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Peca
1
3
Backes
Peca
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Peca
Edge
Even Strength
40.3% (67)
57.5% (73)
-17.2%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
0.0% (2)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
25.0% (4)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Peca has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Peca shoots left. Backes is 37.3% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Backes shoots right. Peca is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (30).
Home / Away
Backes
Peca
Home
44.2% (52)
72.2% (18)
Away
21.1% (19)
49.2% (61)
By Period
Backes
Peca
P1
38.9%
62.1%
P2
30.8%
41.7%
P3
44.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
41.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
38.0%
Peca
46.0%▼
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 16:05 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 11:49 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 02:02 | Neutral | David Backes |