Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.5%). Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Richards 50.5% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Richards leads 29-19 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 53.5%
Defensive zone
Backes 53.6%
Neutral zone
Backes 53.5%
Result
David Backes favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Backes
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
29
(48 meetings)
19
29
Backes
Richards
Last 10: Backes 6-4 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
4
15
Backes
Richards
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
8
9
Backes
Richards
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
7
5
Backes
Richards
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
50.0% (3,722)
+1.1%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
54.6% (445)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
51.4% (502)
-4.0%
On penalty kill, Richards has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. Richards is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,577).
Home / Away
Backes
Richards
Home
50.6% (3,936)
50.8% (2,363)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
50.3% (2,336)
By Period
Backes
Richards
P1
50.1%
49.6%
P2
51.5%
52.3%
P3
50.8%
49.3%
OT
42.9%
58.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 17:20 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 26, 2016 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 18, 2014 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 16, 2014 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 01:29 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 3 | 13:31 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 2 | 17:06 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 16, 2014 | 1 | 11:25 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Dec 2, 2013 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 2, 2013 | 3 | 12:00 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 1 | 13:47 | Neutral | Mike Richards |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |