Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 61.5%
Defensive zone
Backes 58.1%
Neutral zone
Backes 59.8%
Result
David Backes favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Backes
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Backes
Bjugstad
Last 10: Backes 6-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Backes
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
4
1
Backes
Bjugstad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
48.6% (6,634)
+2.5%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
55.2% (829)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
44.3% (614)
+3.1%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,127).
Backes shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,330).
Home / Away
Backes
Bjugstad
Home
50.6% (3,936)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Backes
Bjugstad
P1
50.1%
49.0%
P2
51.5%
49.1%
P3
50.8%
48.4%
OT
42.9%
61.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 03:01 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 8, 2018 | 3 | 06:01 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 8, 2014 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 8, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |