Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.7%). Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 51.9% vs Bjugstad 51.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 52.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 62.8%
Neutral zone
Backes 66.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Backes
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Backes
Bjugstad
Last 5: Backes 4-1 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
3
0
Backes
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (893)
50.4% (752)
+1.7%
Power Play
54.4% (147)
60.6% (104)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (152)
58.3% (12)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Backes is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Backes shoots right. Bjugstad is 52.3% vs right-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Backes
Bjugstad
Home
53.1% (573)
52.9% (461)
Away
51.1% (619)
50.4% (407)
By Period
Backes
Bjugstad
P1
51.8%
51.5%
P2
52.3%
53.8%
P3
52.6%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
43.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | David Backes |