Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 30-21 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 86.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 64.9%
Neutral zone
Backes 71.9%
Result
David Backes favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Backes
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
30
(51 meetings)
21
30
Backes
Gaustad
Last 10: Backes 3-7 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
15
8
Backes
Gaustad
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
12
Backes
Gaustad
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
3
10
Backes
Gaustad
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
58.2% (4,334)
-7.1%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
65.4% (188)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
54.8% (1,290)
-7.4%
On power play, Gaustad has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Backes
Gaustad
Home
50.6% (3,936)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Backes
Gaustad
P1
50.1%
58.2%
P2
51.5%
56.4%
P3
50.8%
58.3%
OT
42.9%
66.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2016 | 2 | 16:11 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2015 | OT | 02:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 3 | 19:45 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 14:14 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 13:38 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 2 | 13:32 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 29, 2015 | OT | 04:58 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 2 | 08:00 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 30, 2014 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |