Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 52.1% vs Gaustad 57.9% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 76.3%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 63.1%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 51.8%
Result
David Backes favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Backes
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Backes
Gaustad
Last 8: Backes 3-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Backes
Gaustad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
2
Backes
Gaustad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (726)
59.8% (353)
-5.4%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
66.7% (15)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (94)
58.0% (81)
-17.6%
On power play, Gaustad has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Backes is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Backes shoots right. Gaustad is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Backes
Gaustad
Home
50.8% (447)
62.1% (195)
Away
53.8% (465)
57.9% (254)
By Period
Backes
Gaustad
P1
51.8%
59.4%
P2
53.2%
58.1%
P3
52.8%
61.3%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.8%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 12:57 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 10:09 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 09:09 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 1 | 05:54 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | David Backes |