Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Backes wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 48.7% vs Johansen 46.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 63.2%
Defensive zone
Backes 77.2%
Neutral zone
Backes 63.5%
Result
David Backes favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Backes
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Backes
Johansen
Last 7: Backes 5-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Backes
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
4
1
Backes
Johansen
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (967)
45.7% (186)
+3.4%
Power Play
48.1% (189)
40.0% (25)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (168)
33.3% (3)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Backes is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Backes shoots right. Johansen is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Backes
Johansen
Home
48.1% (690)
47.2% (108)
Away
49.2% (663)
43.0% (107)
By Period
Backes
Johansen
P1
49.0%
50.0%
P2
50.2%
48.7%
P3
47.5%
37.5%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
38.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 02:04 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 11, 2012 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 10, 2012 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |