Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 57.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 55.3% vs Kesler 55.2% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 74.2%
Defensive zone
Kesler 69.0%
Neutral zone
Kesler 50.4%
Result
David Backes favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Backes
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Backes
Kesler
Last 7: Backes 4-3 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backes
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Backes
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (228)
55.7% (741)
+0.0%
Power Play
65.2% (66)
67.0% (100)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (15)
50.0% (204)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Backes is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (75).
Backes shoots right. Kesler is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Backes
Kesler
Home
55.9% (188)
52.5% (522)
Away
58.7% (121)
58.9% (523)
By Period
Backes
Kesler
P1
53.0%
56.7%
P2
56.6%
56.8%
P3
60.8%
54.1%
Final 5 min
55.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
57.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2019 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 04:48 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 00:21 | Offensive | David Backes |