Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.3% vs 52.9%). Look for Backes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 52.1% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 50.8%
Defensive zone
Backes 55.7%
Neutral zone
Backes 51.9%
Result
David Backes favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Backes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Backes
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backes 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
3
1
Backes
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Backes
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
6
0
Backes
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (726)
53.6% (392)
+0.8%
Power Play
47.8% (92)
47.2% (36)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (94)
50.0% (28)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Backes
O'Reilly
Home
50.8% (447)
54.4% (237)
Away
53.8% (465)
51.1% (219)
By Period
Backes
O'Reilly
P1
51.8%
50.3%
P2
53.2%
51.4%
P3
52.8%
55.7%
OT
33.3%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.8%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 19:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 01:42 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 02:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 12:22 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 02:31 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |