Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Backes wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 15-5 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 58.5%
Defensive zone
Backes 65.8%
Neutral zone
Backes 61.8%
Result
David Backes favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Backes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
5
(20 meetings)
15
5
Backes
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backes 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
6
1
Backes
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
6
4
Backes
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
3
0
Backes
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
52.7% (900)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
55.6% (225)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
54.5% (209)
-3.0%
On power play, Backes has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Backes
O'Reilly
Home
55.3% (524)
55.1% (693)
Away
54.0% (606)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Backes
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
51.5%
P2
54.2%
54.7%
P3
57.1%
52.7%
OT
44.4%
69.7%
Final 5 min
60.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2015 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 19, 2015 | 1 | 00:48 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 07:48 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 2 | 00:28 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 1 | 04:38 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 10:11 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 2 | 08:50 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 08:58 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 01:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 1 | 02:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |