Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 51.2% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 66.6%
Defensive zone
Backes 64.4%
Neutral zone
Backes 63.6%
Result
David Backes favored at 65.0%
65.0%
35.0%
Backes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Backes
O'Reilly
Last 7: Backes 2-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Backes
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Backes
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (179)
60.3% (1,517)
-8.3%
Power Play
55.8% (52)
61.5% (387)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
55.0% (220)
-27.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (173).
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Backes
O'Reilly
Home
53.8% (160)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
47.6% (82)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Backes
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
56.8%
P2
58.0%
64.6%
P3
41.4%
58.5%
Final 5 min
52.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 3 | 12:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 3 | 05:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 04:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 14:24 | Defensive | David Backes |