Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.4% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 74.0%
Defensive zone
Backes 75.8%
Neutral zone
Backes 69.3%
Result
David Backes favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Backes
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
15
(22 meetings)
7
15
Backes
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backes 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
8
Backes
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Backes
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Backes
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (123)
58.6% (841)
-3.3%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
59.9% (207)
-34.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (33)
58.1% (148)
-21.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backes is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Backes shoots right. O'Reilly is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Backes
O'Reilly
Home
46.6% (103)
59.8% (594)
Away
57.9% (57)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Backes
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
61.7%
P2
52.0%
56.2%
P3
48.4%
59.5%
Final 5 min
57.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | David Backes |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 09:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 11:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 04:33 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 13:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 15:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 19:14 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 03:22 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 1 | 19:31 | Offensive | David Backes |