Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.7%
Defensive zone
Backes 56.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Backes
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Backes
Hertl
Last 10: Backes 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Backes
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
6
1
Backes
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
3
2
Backes
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,772)
53.8% (8,268)
-2.7%
Power Play
50.8% (1,082)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (930)
46.3% (806)
+1.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Backes shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Backes
Hertl
Home
50.6% (3,936)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
50.7% (3,895)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Backes
Hertl
P1
50.1%
53.6%
P2
51.5%
54.1%
P3
50.8%
55.3%
OT
42.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 06:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 10:18 | Neutral | David Backes |