Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 50.4% vs Hertl 54.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 58.7%
Defensive zone
Backes 69.6%
Neutral zone
Backes 62.2%
Result
David Backes favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Backes
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Backes
Hertl
Last 10: Backes 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Backes
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
4
1
Backes
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Backes
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (123)
55.7% (648)
-0.4%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
60.4% (149)
-35.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (33)
42.2% (83)
-5.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +35.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backes is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Backes shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Backes
Hertl
Home
46.6% (103)
58.3% (391)
Away
57.9% (57)
52.8% (489)
By Period
Backes
Hertl
P1
52.1%
58.9%
P2
52.0%
51.5%
P3
48.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 16:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 06:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 04:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 5, 2021 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | David Backes |