Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backes wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 54.2% vs Johnson 48.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 74.9%
Defensive zone
Backes 93.5%
Neutral zone
Backes 90.7%
Result
David Backes favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Backes
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Backes
Johnson
Last 6: Backes 5-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
1
Backes
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
0
Backes
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
1
0
Backes
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (822)
49.5% (828)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.9% (141)
54.9% (142)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (167)
36.8% (133)
+14.7%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Backes is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (319).
Backes shoots right. Johnson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Backes
Johnson
Home
55.3% (524)
50.7% (564)
Away
54.0% (606)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Backes
Johnson
P1
53.2%
51.2%
P2
54.2%
47.5%
P3
57.1%
48.4%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
60.2%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 01:36 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 16:50 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 2 | 17:44 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | David Backes |